A landslide win bigger than Noy’s or razor-thin like FVR’s? Get ready for the wildest Philippine presidential race ever

Former Presidential Communication Undersecretary Manolo “The Explainer” Quezon believes the coming elections could be the most lopsided or tightest presidential race ever.

Even after the deadline for filing of candidacy, Quezon said it was “too early” to predict how the May 9 polls would shape up considering that the combatants could still change before the November 15 deadline for substitution of candidates.

At this point, the key names running for president are former Senator Bongbong Marcos, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, Vice President Leni Robredo, and Senators Ping Lacson, Bato Dela Rosa and Manny Pacquiao.

But everyone is still waiting for the next move of presidential survey frontrunner Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte — will she stick to her re-election bid or heed the pleas of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Speaker Lord Alan Velasco to seek the presidency.

“We don’t know if/what November surprises will be. Two extremes: we might see a landslide or 1992. It actually all depends on how BBM/Daughterte play their cards. If crime goes up Ping gets strong,” said Quezon.

“The Explainer” host pointed out that it has been over three decades since the Philippines has had a president who won by a majority vote.

“One thing we haven’t reflected on enough, I think, is how we’ve gone for more than a generation not knowing or seeing a truly majority-making political message is. Because the maximum ever achieved was 40 percent: what wins is a minority rejected by an overwhelming majority every time,” said Quezon.

The late Noynoy Aquino has the highest win percentage among post-EDSA Peoplwe Power presidents with 42.08 percent of the votes in 2010. Fidel V. Ramos has bey far the lowest win percentage with only 23.58 percent of the votes in 1992.

Least problematic in terms of broadness of coalition: Ping-TitoSen, most problematic on this score: Leni-Kiko; surprising competitiveness: Pacman’s; most surprising because weak, lackluster, and not even complete: the ruling party. Most obviously waiting-and-seeing: BBM & Lakas.

— Manuel L. Quezon III (@mlq3) October 15, 2021

One thing we haven’t reflected on enough, I think, is how we’ve gone for more than a generation not knowing or seeing a truly majority-making political message is. Because the maximum ever achieved was 40%: what wins is a minority rejected by an overwhelming majority every time. pic.twitter.com/GAn3Jaeod0

— Manuel L. Quezon III (@mlq3) October 15, 2021

This then adds to the alienation of the majority except for two temporary trends after each election: by instinct the populace reunites to give the winner a chance while the political class recombines to form a supermajority all the better to maintain the status quo which rewards

— Manuel L. Quezon III (@mlq3) October 15, 2021

Arroyo made pitches for a more centrist, technocratic —reformist—agenda; Estrada maximized populist appeal but we forget it was also tempered by his own instincts as town gentry to respect, even venerate, the social order. Aquino pitched an appeal diametrically opposed to class

— Manuel L. Quezon III (@mlq3) October 15, 2021

approach to the class warfare egged on say by Binay in 2016 or to a lesser extent (but more as campaign sank and got frustrated) Villar in 2010. But again the bare bones political math tends to push more polarizing pitches in a bid to grab small increments of voters.

— Manuel L. Quezon III (@mlq3) October 15, 2021

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Source: Latest Politics News Today (Politics.com.ph)